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Christian WatsonQuestionable

Green Bay Packers · WR · #9

GB @ NE · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
OverUnder72.5
Under 72.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1154 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 72.5

50%5 of 10L10

Under 72.5 Receiving Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

  1. vs BAL, 2025-12-27: 113, missed, 6 targets
  2. at CHI, 2026-01-10: 36, hit, 7 targets
  3. at MIN, 2026-09-13: 147, missed, 8 targets
  4. at NYJ, 2026-09-20: 41, hit, 11 targets
  5. vs ATL, 2026-09-24: 96, missed, 10 targets
  6. at TB, 2026-10-04: 47, hit, 3 targets
  7. vs CHI, 2026-10-11: 143, missed, 8 targets
  8. vs DAL, 2026-10-18: 64, hit, 8 targets
  9. at DET, 2026-10-25: 57, hit, 8 targets
  10. vs CAR, 2026-10-29: 113, missed, 10 targets
Under hitMissedThe 72.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 17.5–126.4 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 72.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Jordan Love led GB in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 72.5 with Love at quarterback: 26 of 36; with another GB quarterback: 2 of 3

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    NE allow 152.1 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 10th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 8.7 targets · 2026: 8.3 (8 games)

    Target share: 21% last 3 games · 21% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    9 days off since Oct 29 vs CAR

Splits

Under 72.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 72.5

Average
85.7
+13.2 vs line
Median
80
+7.5 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −115
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
50%
estimate · fair −101

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −101, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−3054 books—3/10
−1954 books—4/10
−1274 books—5/10
−1144 books−1153 books5/10
−1142 books−1142 books5/10
+1154 books—5/10
+1604 books—5/10
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 72.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 72.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 72.5Under 72.5
betPARX5 min ago−113Best−115Best
Bovada8 min ago−115−115Best
BetRivers6 min ago−114−117
Bally Bet8 min ago−113Best—
PrizePickspick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 12:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

72.5

73.5 → 72.5 since first seen

Christian Watson's full game log and splits