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Christian McCaffreyQuestionable

San Francisco 49ers · RB · #23

LV @ SF · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
OverUnder38.5
Over 38.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1144 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 38.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 38.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

  1. vs SEA, 2026-01-03: 34, missed, 7 targets
  2. at PHI, 2026-01-11: 66, cleared, 8 targets
  3. at SEA, 2026-01-17: 39, cleared, 6 targets
  4. at LAR, 2026-09-10: 20, missed, 8 targets
  5. vs MIA, 2026-09-20: 43, cleared, 4 targets
  6. vs ARI, 2026-09-27: 41, cleared, 5 targets
  7. vs DEN, 2026-10-04: 18, missed, 5 targets
  8. at SEA, 2026-10-11: 15, missed, 3 targets
  9. vs WSH, 2026-10-19: 53, cleared, 10 targets
  10. at ATL, 2026-10-25: 61, cleared, 7 targets
ClearedMissedThe 38.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 11.4–67.7 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 38.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Brock Purdy led SF in passing in 7 of 7 games this season

    Over 38.5 with Purdy at quarterback: 17 of 32; with another SF quarterback: 8 of 9

  • Defense vs running backs

    LV allow 33.5 receiving yards a game to running backs: 15th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 6.7 targets · 2026: 6 (7 games)

    Target share: 20% last 3 games · 20% over 7 games this season

  • Rest

    13 days off since Oct 25 at ATL

Splits

Over 38.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LV on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 38.5

Average
39
+0.5 vs line
Median
40
+1.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −114
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
52%
estimate · fair −110

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −110, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−6254 books—8/10
−3101 book—7/10
−2304 books—7/10
−1144 books−1143 books6/10
−1074 books—5/10
+1754 books—3/10
+3104 books—2/10
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 38.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 38.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 38.5Under 38.5
Bally Bet4 min ago−114Best—
betPARX6 min ago−114Best−114Best
FanDuel4 min ago−114Best−114Best
BetRivers4 min ago−115−115
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:50 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

38.5

No move since first seen

Christian McCaffrey's full game log and splits