Chris Olave

New Orleans Saints · WR · #12

CAR @ NO · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Over 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1656 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 5.5 Receptions cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).

vs NYJ, 2025-12-21: 10, cleared, 16 targets
at TEN, 2025-12-28: 8, cleared, 11 targets
at DET, 2026-09-13: 10, cleared, 13 targets
at BAL, 2026-09-20: 8, cleared, 10 targets
vs LV, 2026-09-27: 9, cleared, 13 targets
vs ATL, 2026-10-05: 8, cleared, 12 targets
vs MIN, 2026-10-11: 4, missed, 6 targets
at NYG, 2026-10-18: 4, missed, 7 targets
vs PIT, 2026-10-25: 6, cleared, 10 targets
vs CLE, 2026-11-08: 7, cleared, 12 targets

ClearedMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 3–9 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Tyler Shough led NO in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 5.5 with Shough at quarterback: 11 of 17; with another NO quarterback: 11 of 22
Defense vs wide receivers
CAR allow 12.4 receptions a game to wide receivers: 10th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 9.7 targets · 2026: 10.4 (8 games)
Target share: 28% last 3 games · 27% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs CLE

Splits

Over 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CAR in his last 10; Over 5.5 cleared in 1 of 5 against CAR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CAR

Receptions: 6 in 9 targets, Dec 14, 2025 (home)

Over 5.5 hit in 1 of 5 games against CAR on record

L10 · Over 5.5

Average: 7.4; +1.9 vs line
Median: 8; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −165
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At −138 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −134, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−25003 books	—	10/10
−8354 books	—	10/10
−3354 books	—	8/10
−1656 books	+1153 books	8/10
+1124 books	−1651 book	7/10
+1954 books	—	6/10
+3254 books	—	3/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−138Best	+104
Bovada2 min ago	−150	+115Best
Pinnacle2 min ago	−153	+115Best
Bally Bet2 min ago	−165	—
betPARX2 min ago	−165	—
BetRivers2 min ago	−165	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:39 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

6.5 → 5.5 since first seen