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Chris Olave

New Orleans Saints · WR · #12

CLE @ NO · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
OverUnder5.5
Over 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1366 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 5.5

80%8 of 10L10

Over 5.5 Receptions cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).

  1. vs CAR, 2025-12-14: 6, cleared, 9 targets
  2. vs NYJ, 2025-12-21: 10, cleared, 16 targets
  3. at TEN, 2025-12-28: 8, cleared, 11 targets
  4. at DET, 2026-09-13: 10, cleared, 13 targets
  5. at BAL, 2026-09-20: 8, cleared, 10 targets
  6. vs LV, 2026-09-27: 9, cleared, 13 targets
  7. vs ATL, 2026-10-05: 8, cleared, 12 targets
  8. vs MIN, 2026-10-11: 4, missed, 6 targets
  9. at NYG, 2026-10-18: 4, missed, 7 targets
  10. vs PIT, 2026-10-25: 6, cleared, 10 targets
ClearedMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 3–9 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Tyler Shough led NO in passing in 7 of 7 games this season

    Over 5.5 with Shough at quarterback: 10 of 16; with another NO quarterback: 11 of 22

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    CLE allow 10.5 receptions a game to wide receivers: 22nd most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 7.7 targets · 2026: 10.1 (7 games)

    Target share: 25% last 3 games · 26% over 7 games this season

  • Rest

    13 days off since Oct 25 vs PIT

Splits

Over 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CLE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 5.5

Average
7.3
+1.8 vs line
Median
8
+2.5 vs line
Hit rate
80%
8 of 10
Price implies
58%
at −136
Books’ fair
54%
margin removed
Our chance
55%
estimate · fair −120

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −120, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−20003 books—10/10
−6254 books—10/10
−2754 books—8/10
−1366 books+1004 books8/10
+1354 books—6/10
+2304 books—6/10
+3804 books—3/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 5.5Under 5.5
Bovada4 min ago−130Best+100
Bally Bet4 min ago−136—
betPARX4 min ago−136−107
BetRivers4 min ago−136—
FanDuel1 min ago−138+104Best
Pinnacle4 min ago−138+104Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 3:02 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

−138 → −136 since first seen

Chris Olave's full game log and splits