Chris Bell
DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
Game log against Under 2.5
57%4 of 7L7
Under 2.5 Receptions hit in 4 of his last 7 games (1 of 3 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.
What's different on Sunday
Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pickSunDefense vs wide receivers
DET allow 14.1 receptions a game to wide receivers: 2nd most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 3.7 targets · 2026: 3.4 (7 games)
Target share: 14% last 3 games · 13% over 7 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs NE
Game lines
MIA +7 · total 50 (6 sportsbooks)
MIA's games this season closed at 42.2 on average (7 games)
Splits
Under 2.5 · L7 · counts, not in orderNo game against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L7 · Under 2.5
- Average
- 1.7
- −0.8 vs line
- Median
- 1
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 57%
- 4 of 7
- Price implies
- 64%
- at −180
- Books’ fair
- 60%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −132
Research, not a pick. At −177 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −132, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L7| Line | Over | Under | L7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −14304 books | — | 3/7 | |
| −2304 books | — | 4/7 | |
| +1346 books | −1804 books | 4/7 | |
| +3254 books | — | 5/7 | |
| +8004 books | — | 7/7 | |
| +12801 book | — | 7/7 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX5 min ago | +135 | −177Best |
| FanDuel3 min ago | +134 | −180 |
| Pinnacle3 min ago | +134 | −180 |
| Bovada3 min ago | +140Best | −185 |
| Bally Bet3 min ago | +135 | — |
| BetRivers3 min ago | +132 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 2:24 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
2.5No move since first seen