CeeDee Lamb

Dallas Cowboys · WR · #88

SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM

Over Under7.5

Under 7.5 Receptions, typical price −1225 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 7.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at NYG, 2026-01-04: 1, hit, 1 targets
at NYG, 2026-09-13: 5, hit, 8 targets
vs WSH, 2026-09-20: 8, missed, 9 targets
vs BAL, 2026-09-27: 7, hit, 8 targets
at HOU, 2026-10-04: 17, missed, 21 targets
vs TB, 2026-10-08: 2, hit, 5 targets
at GB, 2026-10-18: 9, missed, 18 targets
at PHI, 2026-10-26: 5, hit, 12 targets
vs ARI, 2026-11-01: 7, hit, 11 targets
at IND, 2026-11-08: 10, missed, 16 targets

Under hitMissedThe 7.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 3–10 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Dak Prescott led DAL in passing in 9 of 9 games this season
Under 7.5 with Prescott at quarterback: 27 of 38; with another DAL quarterback: 5 of 9
Defense vs wide receivers
SF allow 10.3 receptions a game to wide receivers: 22nd most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 13 targets · 2026: 12 (9 games)
Target share: 43% last 3 games · 32% over 9 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at IND

Splits

Under 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SF in his last 10; Under 7.5 hit in 0 of 1 against SF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs SF

Receptions: 13 in 17 targets, Oct 27, 2024 (away)

Under 7.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against SF on record

L10 · Under 7.5

Average: 7.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 7; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −122
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −138

Research, not a pick. At −122 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −138, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−11154 books	—	2/10
−4204 books	—	4/10
−2004 books	—	4/10
−1075 books	−1223 books	6/10
+1654 books	—	7/10
+2754 books	—	8/10
+4754 books	—	9/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
betPARX6 min ago	−107	−122Best
FanDuel6 min ago	−108	−122Best
Pinnacle6 min ago	+106Best	−140
Bally Bet6 min ago	−107	—
BetRivers6 min ago	−107	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:10 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

−118 → −122 since first seen