Brock Bowers

Las Vegas Raiders · TE · #89

LV @ SF · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM

Over Under6.5

Under 6.5 Receptions, typical price −1145 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Under 6.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Kirk Cousins led LV in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 6.5 with Cousins at quarterback: 3 of 6; with another LV quarterback: 19 of 29
Defense vs tight ends
SF allow 6.0 receptions a game to tight ends: 10th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 9 targets · 2026: 10.2 (6 games)
Target share: 24% last 3 games · 26% over 6 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at NYJ

70%7 of 10L10

Under 6.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).

at LAC, 2025-11-30: 4, hit, 4 targets
vs DEN, 2025-12-07: 4, hit, 5 targets
at PHI, 2025-12-14: 6, hit, 8 targets
at HOU, 2025-12-21: 5, hit, 5 targets
at NO, 2026-09-27: 10, missed, 13 targets
vs KC, 2026-10-04: 6, hit, 11 targets
at NE, 2026-10-11: 8, missed, 10 targets
vs BUF, 2026-10-18: 4, hit, 9 targets
vs LAR, 2026-10-25: 6, hit, 8 targets
at NYJ, 2026-11-01: 7, missed, 10 targets

Under hitMissedThe 6.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–8 receptions.

Splits

Under 6.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 6.5

Average: 6; −0.5 vs line
Median: 6; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −134, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−16674 books	—	0/10
−5304 books	—	3/10
−2254 books	—	4/10
−1125 books	−1143 books	7/10
+1704 books	—	8/10
+3004 books	—	9/10
+5504 books	—	9/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 6.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 6.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 6.5	Under 6.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−114	−114Best
Pinnacle5 min ago	−114	−114Best
betPARX5 min ago	−110Best	−118
Bally Bet5 min ago	−110Best	—
BetRivers5 min ago	−112	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:35 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

6.5

Under: −130 → −114 since first seen