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Brenton Strange

Jacksonville Jaguars · TE · #85

JAX @ TEN · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM
OverUnder3.5
Under 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1606 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 3.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 on the road).

  1. vs TEN, 2026-01-04: 6, missed, 6 targets
  2. vs BUF, 2026-01-11: 2, hit, 5 targets
  3. vs CLE, 2026-09-13: 2, hit, 3 targets
  4. at DEN, 2026-09-20: 2, hit, 2 targets
  5. vs NE, 2026-09-27: 3, hit, 5 targets
  6. at CIN, 2026-10-04: 7, missed, 8 targets
  7. vs PHI, 2026-10-11: 7, missed, 8 targets
  8. vs HOU, 2026-10-18: 5, missed, 7 targets
  9. vs IND, 2026-11-01: 2, hit, 2 targets
  10. at BAL, 2026-11-05: 2, hit, 2 targets
Under hitMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Trevor Lawrence led JAX in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 3.5 with Lawrence at quarterback: 17 of 28; with another JAX quarterback: 7 of 9

  • Defense vs tight ends

    TEN allow 4.8 receptions a game to tight ends: 23rd most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 3.7 targets · 2026: 4.6 (8 games)

    Target share: 13% last 3 games · 16% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    9 days off since Nov 5 at BAL

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs TEN

Receptions: 6 in 6 targets, Jan 4 (home)

Under 3.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against TEN on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average
3.8
+0.3 vs line
Median
2.5
−1 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
62%
at −160
Books’ fair
57%
margin removed
Our chance
57%
estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −157 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −130, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−7704 books—0/10
−2254 books—5/10
+1086 books−1604 books6/10
+2304 books—6/10
+4204 books—7/10
+7504 books—8/10
+15001 book—10/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 3.5Under 3.5
betPARX3 min ago+108−157Best
FanDuel3 min ago+120−160
Pinnacle4 min ago+120−160
Bovada3 min ago+125Best−165
Bally Bet3 min ago+108—
BetRivers3 min ago+108—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 5:39 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Under: −145 → −160 since first seen

Brenton Strange's full game log and splits