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Ashton Jeanty

Las Vegas Raiders · RB · #2

SEA @ LV · Sun, Nov 15 4:05 PM
OverUnder4.5
Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1586 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 4.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

  1. vs KC, 2026-01-04: 3, hit, 5 targets
  2. vs MIA, 2026-09-13: 6, missed, 6 targets
  3. at LAC, 2026-09-20: 4, hit, 7 targets
  4. at NO, 2026-09-27: 3, hit, 3 targets
  5. vs KC, 2026-10-04: 6, missed, 8 targets
  6. at NE, 2026-10-11: 3, hit, 6 targets
  7. vs BUF, 2026-10-18: 4, hit, 6 targets
  8. vs LAR, 2026-10-25: 8, missed, 8 targets
  9. at NYJ, 2026-11-01: 3, hit, 4 targets
  10. at SF, 2026-11-08: 5, missed, 7 targets
Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Kirk Cousins led LV in passing in 9 of 9 games this season

    Under 4.5 with Cousins at quarterback: 5 of 9; with another LV quarterback: 11 of 16

  • Defense vs running backs

    SEA allow 4.8 receptions a game to running backs: 10th most of 32

    9 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 6.3 targets · 2026: 6.1 (9 games)

    Target share: 18% last 3 games · 17% over 9 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at SF

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SEA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 4.5

Average
4.5
±0 vs line
Median
4
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
61%
at −158
Books’ fair
57%
margin removed
Our chance
57%
estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −150 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −131, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−25004 books—0/10
−4804 books—0/10
−1754 books—4/10
+1186 books−1584 books6/10
+2554 books—7/10
+5004 books—9/10
+9504 books—9/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 4.5Under 4.5
Bovada1 min ago+115−150Best
FanDuel1 min ago+118−158
Pinnacle2 min ago+118−158
betPARX2 min ago+128Best−167
Bally Bet2 min ago+128Best—
BetRivers2 min ago+128Best—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Under: No move since first seen

Ashton Jeanty's full game log and splits