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Amon-Ra St. BrownQuestionable

Detroit Lions · WR · #14

NE @ DET · Sun, Nov 15 9:30 AM
OverUnder7.5
Under 7.5 Receptions, typical price −1366 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 7.5

30%3 of 10L10

Under 7.5 Receptions hit in 3 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

  1. at MIN, 2025-12-25: 8, missed, 13 targets
  2. at CHI, 2026-01-04: 11, missed, 15 targets
  3. vs NO, 2026-09-13: 10, missed, 14 targets
  4. at BUF, 2026-09-17: 9, missed, 13 targets
  5. vs NYJ, 2026-09-27: 4, hit, 8 targets
  6. at CAR, 2026-10-04: 8, missed, 11 targets
  7. at ARI, 2026-10-11: 6, hit, 11 targets
  8. vs GB, 2026-10-25: 9, missed, 11 targets
  9. vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 7, hit, 8 targets
  10. at MIA, 2026-11-08: 8, missed, 10 targets
Under hitMissedThe 7.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 3–9 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Jared Goff: Questionable (chest). He led DET in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 7.5 with Goff at quarterback: 31 of 55; with another DET quarterback: no games

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    NE allow 12.9 receptions a game to wide receivers: 6th most of 32

    9 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 9.7 targets · 2026: 10.8 (8 games)

    Target share: 35% last 3 games · 31% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at MIA

Splits

Under 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 7.5

Average
8
+0.5 vs line
Median
8
+0.5 vs line
Hit rate
30%
3 of 10
Price implies
58%
at −136
Books’ fair
54%
margin removed
Our chance
57%
estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −134 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −131, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−8354 books—1/10
−3604 books—1/10
−1904 books—2/10
−1086 books−1364 books3/10
+1554 books—6/10
+2454 books—8/10
+3804 books—9/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 7.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 7.5Under 7.5
betPARX16 min ago−108−134Best
FanDuel16 min ago+102−136
Pinnacle16 min ago+102−136
Bovada16 min ago+115Best−150
Bally Bet16 min ago−108—
BetRivers16 min ago−108—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 7:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

Under: No move since first seen

Amon-Ra St. Brown's full game log and splits