Amon-Ra St. BrownQuestionable

Detroit Lions · WR · #14

NE @ DET · Sun, Nov 15 9:30 AM

Over Under78.5

Under 78.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1175 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 78.5 Receiving Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at MIN, 2025-12-25: 68, hit, 13 targets
at CHI, 2026-01-04: 139, missed, 15 targets
vs NO, 2026-09-13: 67, hit, 14 targets
at BUF, 2026-09-17: 142, missed, 13 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-09-27: 19, hit, 8 targets
at CAR, 2026-10-04: 75, hit, 11 targets
at ARI, 2026-10-11: 69, hit, 11 targets
vs GB, 2026-10-25: 153, missed, 11 targets
vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 46, hit, 8 targets
at MIA, 2026-11-08: 86, missed, 10 targets

Under hitMissedThe 78.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 12.2–128.3 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 78.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Jared Goff: Questionable (chest). He led DET in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 78.5 with Goff at quarterback: 31 of 55; with another DET quarterback: no games
Defense vs wide receivers
NE allow 175.2 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 4th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 9.7 targets · 2026: 10.8 (8 games)
Target share: 35% last 3 games · 31% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at MIA

Splits

Under 78.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 78.5

Average: 86.4; +7.9 vs line
Median: 72; −6.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −117

Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −117, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2784 books	—	2/10
−1804 books	—	5/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	6/10
−1255 books	−1174 books	6/10
−1204 books	—	6/10
+1204 books	—	7/10
+1981 book	—	7/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 78.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 78.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 78.5	Under 78.5
Pinnacle6 min ago	−118	−112Best
FanDuel6 min ago	−114Best	−114
betPARX6 min ago	−125	−117
BetRivers6 min ago	−125	−117
Bally Bet6 min ago	−125	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:24 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

78.5

−114 → −117 since first seen