Alvin KamaraQuestionable

New Orleans Saints · RB · #41

CLE @ NO · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under44.5

Over 44.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1293 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 44.5 Rush+Rec Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

vs TB, 2025-10-26: 45, cleared, 8 carries + targets
at LAR, 2025-11-02: 17, missed, 9 carries + targets
at CAR, 2025-11-09: 115, cleared, 25 carries + targets
vs ATL, 2025-11-23: 15, missed, 5 carries + targets
at BAL, 2026-09-20: 22, missed, 15 carries + targets
vs LV, 2026-09-27: 41, missed, 10 carries + targets
vs ATL, 2026-10-05: 58, cleared, 14 carries + targets
vs MIN, 2026-10-11: 6, missed, 5 carries + targets
at NYG, 2026-10-18: 69, cleared, 11 carries + targets
vs PIT, 2026-10-25: 62, cleared, 13 carries + targets

ClearedMissedThe 44.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 14.9–78.4 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 44.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Tyler Shough led NO in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Over 44.5 with Shough at quarterback: 5 of 10; with another NO quarterback: 25 of 28
Defense vs running backs
CLE allow 133.4 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 11th most of 32
8 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 9.7 carries + targets · 2026: 11.3 (6 games)
Target share: 14% last 3 games · 12% over 6 games this season
Rest
13 days off since Oct 25 vs PIT

Splits

Over 44.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CLE in his last 10; Over 44.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against CLE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CLE

Rush+Rec Yards: 89 in 20 carries + targets, Nov 17, 2024 (home)

Over 44.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against CLE on record

L10 · Over 44.5

Average: 45; +0.5 vs line
Median: 43; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −129
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −111

Research, not a pick. At −129 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −111, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4353 books	—	6/10
−1803 books	—	6/10
−1293 books	−1132 books	5/10
−1131 book	−1151 book	4/10
—	—	4/10
+1073 books	—	4/10
+1903 books	—	3/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 44.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 44.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 44.5	Under 44.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	−129Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	−129Best	−113Best
BetRivers3 min ago	−129Best	−113Best

Prices as of 4:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

44.5

48.5 → 44.5 since first seen