Alvin KamaraQuestionable

New Orleans Saints · RB · #41

CLE @ NO · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Under 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1344 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

vs TB, 2025-10-26: 2, hit, 2 targets
at LAR, 2025-11-02: 1, hit, 3 targets
at CAR, 2025-11-09: 3, hit, 3 targets
vs ATL, 2025-11-23: 2, hit, 2 targets
at BAL, 2026-09-20: 5, missed, 6 targets
vs LV, 2026-09-27: 1, hit, 1 targets
vs ATL, 2026-10-05: 5, missed, 7 targets
vs MIN, 2026-10-11: 2, hit, 2 targets
at NYG, 2026-10-18: 2, hit, 4 targets
vs PIT, 2026-10-25: 7, missed, 7 targets

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Tyler Shough led NO in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Under 3.5 with Shough at quarterback: 7 of 10; with another NO quarterback: 7 of 28
Defense vs running backs
CLE allow 3.5 receptions a game to running backs: 25th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 4.3 targets · 2026: 4.5 (6 games)
Target share: 14% last 3 games · 12% over 6 games this season
Rest
13 days off since Oct 25 vs PIT

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CLE in his last 10; Under 3.5 hit in 0 of 1 against CLE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CLE

Receptions: 4 in 4 targets, Nov 17, 2024 (home)

Under 3.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against CLE on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average: 3; −0.5 vs line
Median: 2; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −134
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −106

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −106, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8353 books	—	2/10
−2653 books	—	6/10
−1084 books	−1342 books	7/10
+1903 books	—	7/10
+3603 books	—	9/10
+6503 books	—	9/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−102Best	−130Best
betPARX4 min ago	−108	−134
Bally Bet4 min ago	−108	—
BetRivers6 min ago	−108	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:39 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Under: −106 → −134 since first seen