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AJ Barner

Seattle Seahawks · TE · #88

ARI @ SEA · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
OverUnder2.5
Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1401 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Sam Darnold led SEA in passing in 6 of 8 games this season

    Also led: Drew Lock 2 (Questionable, elbow). Over 2.5 with Darnold at quarterback: 15 of 24; with another SEA quarterback: 4 of 16

  • Defense vs tight ends

    ARI allow 5.5 receptions a game to tight ends: 14th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 4.7 targets · 2026: 4.3 (8 games)

    Target share: 12% last 3 games · 13% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    5 days off since Nov 2 vs CHI

Game log against Over 2.5

50%5 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 6 at home).

  1. vs LAR, 2026-01-25: 2, missed, 3 targets
  2. at NE, 2026-02-08: 4, cleared, 4 targets
  3. vs NE, 2026-09-09: 2, missed, 2 targets
  4. at ARI, 2026-09-20: 1, missed, 1 targets
  5. at WSH, 2026-09-27: 5, cleared, 9 targets
  6. vs LAC, 2026-10-04: 1, missed, 3 targets
  7. vs SF, 2026-10-11: 3, cleared, 5 targets
  8. at DEN, 2026-10-15: 3, cleared, 4 targets
  9. vs KC, 2026-10-25: 4, cleared, 5 targets
  10. vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 2, missed, 5 targets
ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ARI

Receptions: 1 in 1 targets, Sep 20 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against ARI on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average
2.7
+0.2 vs line
Median
2.5
±0 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
58%
at −140
Books’ fair
55%
margin removed
Our chance
55%
estimate · fair −122

Research, not a pick. At −140 the price is worse than our fair −122, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−4401 book—8/10
−1401 book+1061 book5/10
+1741 book—3/10
+3701 book—1/10
+7501 book—0/10
+12801 book—0/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
FanDuel6 min ago−140Best+106Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 5:21 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: No move since first seen

AJ Barner's full game log and splits