Aaron Rodgers

Pittsburgh Steelers · QB · #8

PIT @ CIN · Sun, Nov 15 8:20 PM

Over Under21.5

Over 21.5 Completions, typical price −1034 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 21.5 Completions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

vs BAL, 2026-01-04: 31, cleared, 47 attempts
vs HOU, 2026-01-12: 17, missed, 33 attempts
vs ATL, 2026-09-13: 24, cleared, 40 attempts
at NE, 2026-09-20: 23, cleared, 39 attempts
vs CIN, 2026-09-27: 19, missed, 34 attempts
at CLE, 2026-10-01: 22, cleared, 40 attempts
vs IND, 2026-10-11: 22, cleared, 31 attempts
at TB, 2026-10-18: 33, cleared, 49 attempts
at NO, 2026-10-25: 19, missed, 30 attempts
vs CLE, 2026-11-01: 13, missed, 25 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 21.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 14–28.5 completions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
CIN allow 21.8 completions a game to quarterbacks: 12th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 34.7 attempts · 2026: 36 (8 games)
Rest
13 days off since Nov 1 vs CLE
Game lines
PIT +3.5 · total 49.5 (8 sportsbooks)
PIT's games this season closed at 40.5 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CIN

Completions: 19 in 34 attempts, Sep 27 (home)

Over 21.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against CIN on record

L10 · Over 21.5

Average: 22.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 22; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −103
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 50%; estimate · fair −102

Research, not a pick. At +100 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −102, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8353 books	—	8/10
−2303 books	—	6/10
−1034 books	−1302 books	6/10
+1903 books	—	3/10
+3603 books	—	2/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 21.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 21.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 21.5	Under 21.5
Bally Bet5 min ago	+100Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	+100Best	−130
BetRivers5 min ago	−103	—
Pinnacle5 min ago	−114	−114Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

21.5

Over: +100 → −103 since first seen