Walker Kessler

Los Angeles Lakers · C · #14

POR @ LAL · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −2142 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

at PHX, 2025-10-31: 1, cleared, 29 min
vs GS, 2026-10-21: 0, missed, 30 min
vs LAC, 2026-10-23: 3, cleared, 35 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-25: 0, missed, 28 min
vs POR, 2026-10-27: 1, cleared, 33 min
at LAC, 2026-10-28: 2, cleared, 26 min
at GS, 2026-10-30: 0, missed, 31 min
vs TOR, 2026-11-01: 1, cleared, 31 min
vs MIA, 2026-11-02: 2, cleared, 32 min
at SAC, 2026-11-04: 3, cleared, 29 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
9 games with LAL; before that, UTAH
Over 0.5 with LAL: 6 of 9; his last 10 games before: 7 of 10
Defense vs centers
POR allow 1.1 steals a game to centers: 9th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 29.8 min · 2026–27: 30.6 (9 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at SAC

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Luka DoncicG
Austin ReavesG
Collin SextonG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Lakers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs POR

Steals: 1 in 33 min, Oct 27 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against POR on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 68%; at −214
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Our chance: 68%; estimate · fair −208

Research, not a pick. At −210 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −208, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2142 books	+1542 books	7/10
+2032 books	—	4/10
+8001 book	—	2/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
FanDuel1 min ago	−210Best	+154
DraftKings2 min ago	−214	+159Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:44 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −205 → −214 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Walker Kessler's full game log and splits