Tyler Herro

Milwaukee Bucks · G · #11

MIL @ BOS · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Assists, typical price −1503 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
7 games with MIL; before that, MIA
Under 4.5 with MIL: 5 of 7; his last 10 games before: 6 of 10
Defense vs guards
BOS allow 14.1 assists a game to guards: 23rd most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 29.6 min · 2025–26: 31.2 (33 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at MIN

60%6 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Assists hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at TOR, 2026-04-07: 6, missed, 30 min
at TOR, 2026-04-09: 4, hit, 28 min
vs ATL, 2026-04-12: 8, missed, 22 min
at WSH, 2026-10-21: 9, missed, 32 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-23: 4, hit, 32 min
at PHI, 2026-10-24: 3, hit, 31 min
vs IND, 2026-10-26: 7, missed, 32 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 27 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-31: 2, hit, 27 min
at MIN, 2026-11-02: 3, hit, 31 min

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2–7 assists.

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BOS in his last 10; Under 4.5 hit in 7 of 12 against BOS on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 4.5 · L10

Kevin Porter Jr.G
Ryan RollinsG
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Bucks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BOS

Herro didn't play the Apr 3 meeting; assists the last time Herro faced them: 7 (Apr 1)

Under 4.5 hit in 7 of 12 games against BOS on record

L10 · Under 4.5

Average: 4.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 4; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −150
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −149 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −137, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−25001 book	—	1/10
−5502 books	—	2/10
−1903 books	+1451 book	4/10
+1153 books	−1503 books	6/10
+2222 books	—	6/10
+4002 books	—	7/10
+8302 books	—	8/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
DraftKings2 min ago	+113	−149Best
Bovada2 min ago	+115	−150
FanDuel2 min ago	+118Best	−158
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

−160 → −150 since first seen

Tyler Herro's full game log and splits