Tyler Herro

Milwaukee Bucks · G · #11

TOR @ MIL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Assists, typical price −1555 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Assists cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at TOR, 2026-04-09: 4, cleared, 28 min
vs ATL, 2026-04-12: 8, cleared, 22 min
at WSH, 2026-10-21: 9, cleared, 32 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-23: 4, cleared, 32 min
at PHI, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 31 min
vs IND, 2026-10-26: 7, cleared, 32 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 27 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-31: 2, missed, 27 min
at MIN, 2026-11-02: 3, missed, 31 min
at BOS, 2026-11-04: 3, missed, 33 min

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2–7 assists.

What's different today

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
8 games with MIL; before that, MIA
Over 3.5 with MIL: 3 of 8; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10
Defense vs guards
TOR allow 16.5 assists a game to guards: 8th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30 min · 2026–27: 30.6 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at BOS

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 3.5 · L10

Kevin Porter Jr.G
Ryan RollinsG
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Bucks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Herro didn't play the Feb 22 meeting; assists the last time Herro faced them: 4 (Apr 9)

Over 3.5 hit in 7 of 9 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 4.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 3.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −155
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −140

Research, not a pick. At −154 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −140, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−16001 book	—	9/10
−3753 books	—	8/10
−1555 books	+1144 books	5/10
+1353 books	—	3/10
+2654 books	—	3/10
+4803 books	—	3/10
+10601 book	—	2/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−154Best	+116
Bally Bet10 min ago	−155	—
betPARX4 min ago	−155	+114
BetRivers6 min ago	−155	+114
Pinnacle10 min ago	−158	+118Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:36 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

5.5 → 3.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Tyler Herro's full game log and splits