Tyler Herro

Milwaukee Bucks · G · #11

TOR @ MIL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1446 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

at TOR, 2026-04-09: 3, cleared, 28 min
vs ATL, 2026-04-12: 1, missed, 22 min
at WSH, 2026-10-21: 4, cleared, 32 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-23: 5, cleared, 32 min
at PHI, 2026-10-24: 1, missed, 31 min
vs IND, 2026-10-26: 3, cleared, 32 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-28: 4, cleared, 27 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-31: 4, cleared, 27 min
at MIN, 2026-11-02: 4, cleared, 31 min
at BOS, 2026-11-04: 4, cleared, 33 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 3-pointers made.

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
8 games with MIL; before that, MIA
Over 2.5 with MIL: 7 of 8; his last 10 games before: 5 of 10
Defense vs guards
TOR allow 8.1 threes made a game to guards: 10th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30 min · 2026–27: 30.6 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at BOS

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L10

Kevin Porter Jr.G
Ryan RollinsG
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Bucks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Herro didn't play the Feb 22 meeting; 3-pointers made the last time Herro faced them: 3 (Apr 9)

Over 2.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 3.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 4; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 59%; at −144
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −153

Research, not a pick. At −134 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −153, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−36002 books	—	10/10
−3754 books	—	8/10
−1446 books	+1085 books	8/10
+1705 books	—	6/10
+3504 books	—	1/10
+6502 books	—	0/10
+15001 book	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
betPARX5 min ago	−134Best	+100
Bally Bet5 min ago	−136	—
BetRivers6 min ago	−136	+100
FanDuel5 min ago	−144	+108
Pinnacle5 min ago	−144	+108
DraftKings5 min ago	−163	+124Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

3.5 → 2.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Tyler Herro's full game log and splits