Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #25

UTAH @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Rebounds, typical price −1322 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jordan Poole: Out (ankle)
Over 4.5 without him: 28 of 41; with him: 23 of 32 (73 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 4.5 without him: 11 of 14; with him: 40 of 59 (73 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
UTAH allow 21.0 rebounds a game to forwards: 7th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 33.6 min · 2025–26: 35.5 (66 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Rebounds cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at NY, 2026-03-24: 6, cleared, 36 min
at POR, 2026-04-02: 8, cleared, 36 min
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 4, missed, 32 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 4, missed, 32 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 6, cleared, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 6, cleared, 37 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 1, missed, 30 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 5, cleared, 32 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 5, cleared, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 5, cleared, 40 min

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2.2–8.9 rebounds.

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 4.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Jordan PooleGOut
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Rebounds: 6 in 31 min, Oct 23 (away)

Over 4.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 5; +0.5 vs line
Median: 5; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −132
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −162

Research, not a pick. At −132 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −162, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2951 book	—	9/10
−1322 books	+1002 books	7/10
+1581 book	—	4/10
+5601 book	—	1/10
+14001 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−132Best	+100Best
Pinnacle5 min ago	−132Best	+100Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:59 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Trey Murphy III's full game log and splits