Tre Jones

Chicago Bulls · G · #30

CHI @ NY · Live

Over Under11.5

Over 11.5 Pts+Reb, typical price −1172 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 11.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 7 on the road).

at WSH, 2026-04-09: 37, cleared, 30 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-10: 27, cleared, 26 min
at DAL, 2026-04-12: 9, missed, 19 min
at TOR, 2026-10-21: 16, cleared, 13 min
at MIL, 2026-10-23: 14, cleared, 24 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-24: 12, cleared, 18 min
at BOS, 2026-10-26: 9, missed, 15 min
vs NY, 2026-10-28: 15, cleared, 18 min
at BOS, 2026-10-30: 16, cleared, 20 min
at PHI, 2026-11-02: 11, missed, 19 min

ClearedMissedThe 11.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 6.7–27 pts+reb.

What's different yesterday

Over 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayMinutes
Last 5: 18 min · 2025–26: 27 (65 games) · down 33%
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at PHI
3rd straight road game
Pace · possessions a game · 7 games
NY 25th, CHI 1st of 30
NY injuries
Josh Hart (G, Out, 32.9 min)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10)

Splits

Over 11.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 11.5 · L10

Caleb WilsonF
Norman PowellG
Matas BuzelisF

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Bulls count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NY

Pts+Reb: 15 in 18 min, Oct 28 (home)

Over 11.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against NY on record

L10 · Over 11.5

Average: 16.6; +5.1 vs line
Median: 14.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −156

Research, not a pick. At −103 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −156, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−12801 book	—	10/10
−2002 books	—	8/10
−1172 books	−1281 book	7/10
+1802 books	—	5/10
+6501 book	—	2/10
+16201 book	—	2/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks at 11.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 11.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 11.5	Under 11.5
DraftKings15 hr ago	−103Best	−128Best
Bally Bet15 hr ago	−117	—

Prices as of 7:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

11.5

Over: −110 → −117 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Tre Jones's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:43 PM ET.