Tre Jones

Chicago Bulls · G · #30

CHI @ NY · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under9.5

Over 9.5 Points, typical price +1004 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 9.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayMinutes
Last 5: 18 min · 2025–26: 27 (65 games) · down 33%
TodayGame lines
CHI +12.5 · total 232.5 (5 sportsbooks): a big spread
CHI's games this season closed at 238.2 on average (7 games)
Defense vs guards
NY allow 51.6 points a game to guards: 23rd most of 30
7 games
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at PHI
3rd straight road game

70%7 of 10L10

Over 9.5 Points cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 7 on the road).

at WSH, 2026-04-09: 31, cleared, 30 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-10: 23, cleared, 26 min
at DAL, 2026-04-12: 6, missed, 19 min
at TOR, 2026-10-21: 13, cleared, 13 min
at MIL, 2026-10-23: 11, cleared, 24 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-24: 10, cleared, 18 min
at BOS, 2026-10-26: 8, missed, 15 min
vs NY, 2026-10-28: 11, cleared, 18 min
at BOS, 2026-10-30: 12, cleared, 20 min
at PHI, 2026-11-02: 8, missed, 19 min

ClearedMissedThe 9.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 4.7–22.7 points.

Splits

Over 9.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 9.5 · L10

Caleb WilsonF
Norman PowellG
Matas BuzelisF

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Bulls count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NY

Points: 11 in 18 min, Oct 28 (home)

Over 9.5 hit in 5 of 9 games against NY on record

L10 · Over 9.5

Average: 13.3; +3.8 vs line
Median: 11; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 50%; at +100
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −147

Research, not a pick. At +104 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −147, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2951 book	+2151 book	9/10
−2002 books	+1501 book	9/10
−1351 book	+1051 book	7/10
+1004 books	−1364 books	7/10
+1351 book	−1801 book	6/10
+1712 books	−2451 book	4/10
+3673 books	—	2/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks at 9.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 9.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 9.5	Under 9.5
Pinnacle14 min ago	+104Best	−138
FanDuel4 min ago	+102	−136
Bovada14 min ago	+100	−130
DraftKings14 min ago	−101	−126Best

Prices as of 4:29 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

9.5

+102 → +100 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Tre Jones's full game log and splits