Toumani Camara
POR @ PHX · LiveGame log against Over 3.5
62%8 of 13L20 · Without Sharpe
Over 3.5 Rebounds cleared in 8 of 13 games without Shaedon Sharpe (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for Wednesday's game: a typical game lands 0.6–7.2 rebounds.
What's different on Wednesday
Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pickWedTeammate out
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 26 of 38; with him: 40 of 55 (93 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ja Morant: Out (hamstring)
Over 3.5 without him: 2 of 2; with him: 0 of 4 (6 games as teammates). A small sample.
Defense vs forwards
PHX allow 15.8 rebounds a game to forwards: 25th most of 30
5 games
Minutes
Last 5: 27.8 min · 2025–26: 33.3 (87 games)
Splits
Over 3.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 3.5 · L20Deni AvdijaF
Damian LillardG
Shaedon SharpeGOut
Ja MorantGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out on Wednesday. Only games they were teammates on the Trail Blazers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs PHX
Rebounds: 2 in 23 min, Oct 21 (home)
Over 3.5 hit in 6 of 8 games against PHX on record
L20 · Without Sharpe · Over 3.5
- Average
- 4
- +0.5 vs line
- Median
- 4
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 62%
- 8 of 13
- Price implies
- 63%
- at −173
- Books’ fair
- 59%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −139
Research, not a pick. At −170 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −139, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L20 · Without Sharpe| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −16673 books | — | 12/13 | |
| −4404 books | — | 10/13 | |
| −1734 books | +1282 books | 8/13 | |
| +1204 books | −1602 books | 5/13 | |
| +2152 books | — | 2/13 | |
| +3854 books | — | 2/13 | |
| +6502 books | — | 0/13 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada29 hr ago | −170Best | +130Best |
| Pinnacle29 hr ago | −171 | +128 |
| DraftKings29 hr ago | −173 | — |
| Bally Bet29 hr ago | −175 | — |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
3.5−168 → −173 since first seen
What moved our number
This page last updated 9:13 PM ET.


