Tari Eason

Houston Rockets · F · #17

MIN @ HOU · Tomorrow 8:30 PM

Over Under9.5

Over 9.5 Points, typical price −1042 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 9.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 9.5 without him: 32 of 56; with him: 11 of 19 (75 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 37.6 points a game to forwards: 26th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 27.2 min · 2026–27: 24.6 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs BOS

70%7 of 10L10

Over 9.5 Points cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at LAL, 2026-04-29: 18, cleared, 31 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-01: 14, cleared, 37 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 3 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 12, cleared, 27 min
at ATL, 2026-10-24: 19, cleared, 31 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-26: 13, cleared, 33 min
at MIL, 2026-10-28: 5, missed, 31 min
at DAL, 2026-10-30: 11, cleared, 26 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 8, missed, 19 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 13, cleared, 27 min

ClearedMissedThe 9.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 4.1–19.5 points.

Splits

Over 9.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 9.5 cleared in 2 of 5 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 9.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Alperen SengunC
Amen ThompsonG
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Points: 0 in 24 min, Apr 10 (home)

Over 9.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 9.5

Average: 11.5; +2 vs line
Median: 12.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −104
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At −102 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −134, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7501 book	—	9/10
−3891 book	—	8/10
−1891 book	—	8/10
−1042 books	−1252 books	7/10
+1801 book	—	6/10
+4012 books	—	2/10
+8601 book	—	2/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 9.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 9.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 9.5	Under 9.5
DraftKings13 min ago	−102Best	−125Best
FanDuel2 min ago	−106	−125Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:24 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

9.5

−106 → −104 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Tari Eason's full game log and splits