Stephon Castle

San Antonio Spurs · G · #5

SA @ SAC · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under28.5

Under 28.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, typical price −1255 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 28.5 Pts+Reb+Ast hit in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 on the road).

at NY, 2026-06-10: 23, hit, 26 min
vs NY, 2026-06-13: 15, hit, 32 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-20: 32, missed, 28 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-23: 27, hit, 33 min
at DAL, 2026-10-24: 31, missed, 28 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-27: 25, hit, 27 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-28: 28, hit, 38 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-31: 9, hit, 22 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-02: 25, hit, 26 min
vs DAL, 2026-11-04: 30, missed, 35 min

Under hitMissedThe 28.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 16–34.7 pts+reb+ast.

What's different today

Under 28.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayGame lines
SA −15.5 · total 229.5 (7 sportsbooks): a big spread
SA's games this season closed at 229 on average (8 games)
Defense vs guards
SAC allow 78.3 points + rebounds + assists a game to guards: 26th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 29.6 min · 2026–27: 29.6 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs DAL

Splits

Under 28.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 28.5 · L10

Victor WembanyamaF
Dylan HarperG
De'Aaron FoxG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Spurs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SAC

Pts+Reb+Ast: 25 in 27 min, Oct 27 (home)

Under 28.5 hit in 6 of 8 games against SAC on record

L10 · Under 28.5

Average: 24.5; −4 vs line
Median: 26; −2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2254 books	—	3/10
−1701 book	+1301 book	5/10
−1452 books	−1062 books	6/10
−1085 books	−1254 books	7/10
+1105 books	−1301 book	7/10
+1201 book	−1601 book	8/10
+2504 books	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 28.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 28.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 28.5	Under 28.5
Bovada2 min ago	−120	−110Best
DraftKings2 min ago	−119	−111
betPARX3 min ago	−108Best	−125
BetRivers4 min ago	−108Best	−125
Bally Bet2 min ago	−108Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:15 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

28.5

27.5 → 28.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Stephon Castle's full game log and splits