Stephon Castle

San Antonio Spurs · G · #5

SA @ SAC · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under22.5

Under 22.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1176 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 22.5 Pts+Ast hit in 8 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 on the road).

at NY, 2026-06-10: 18, hit, 26 min
vs NY, 2026-06-13: 10, hit, 32 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-20: 25, missed, 28 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-23: 20, hit, 33 min
at DAL, 2026-10-24: 27, missed, 28 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-27: 20, hit, 27 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-28: 22, hit, 38 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-31: 4, hit, 22 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-02: 20, hit, 26 min
vs DAL, 2026-11-04: 20, hit, 35 min

Under hitMissedThe 22.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 11.7–28.1 pts+ast.

What's different today

Under 22.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayGame lines
SA −16.5 · total 229.5 (8 sportsbooks): a big spread
SA's games this season closed at 229 on average (8 games)
Minutes
Last 5: 29.6 min · 2026–27: 29.6 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs DAL
Pace · possessions a game · 8 games
SAC 5th, SA 11th of 30

Splits

Under 22.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 22.5 · L10

Victor WembanyamaF
Dylan HarperG
De'Aaron FoxG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Spurs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SAC

Pts+Ast: 20 in 27 min, Oct 27 (home)

Under 22.5 hit in 7 of 8 games against SAC on record

L10 · Under 22.5

Average: 18.6; −3.9 vs line
Median: 20; −2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At −104 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −142, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7501 book	—	2/10
−2204 books	—	3/10
−1601 book	+1201 book	7/10
−1156 books	−1174 books	8/10
−1051 book	−1251 book	8/10
+1284 books	—	8/10
+3104 books	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 22.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 22.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 22.5	Under 22.5
DraftKings4 min ago	−126	−104Best
Bovada4 min ago	−125	−105
betPARX4 min ago	−115	−117
FanDuel3 min ago	−110Best	−120
Bally Bet4 min ago	−115	—
BetRivers5 min ago	−115	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:40 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

22.5

−120 → −117 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Stephon Castle's full game log and splits