Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #2

OKC @ MEM · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under38.5

Under 38.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1414 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

57%8 of 14L20 · Without Jalen Williams

Under 38.5 Pts+Ast hit in 8 of 14 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at PHX, 2026-04-27: 39, missed, 38 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 24, hit, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 24, hit, 28 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 32, hit, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 43, missed, 39 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 36, hit, 51 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 39, missed, 38 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 38, hit, 36 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 26, hit, 31 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 41, missed, 37 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 19, hit, 28 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 44, missed, 43 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 36, hit, 36 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 20, hit, 35 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 39, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 29, hit, 30 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 23, hit, 28 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 29, hit, 31 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 51, missed, 39 min
vs CLE, 2026-11-04: 50, missed, 35 min

Under hitMissedThe 38.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 21.4–44.4 pts+ast.

What's different today

Under 38.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 38.5 without him: 27 of 54; with him: 31 of 55 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 38.5 without him: 8 of 13; with him: 50 of 96 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 38.5 without him: 4 of 7; with him: 54 of 102 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jaylin Williams: Out (back)
Under 38.5 without him: 9 of 23; with him: 49 of 86 (109 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 38.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MEM in his last 20; Under 38.5 hit in 2 of 10 against MEM on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 38.5 · L20

Ajay MitchellG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut
Jaylin WilliamsFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MEM

Gilgeous-Alexander didn't play the Jan 9 meeting; pts+ast the last time Gilgeous-Alexander faced them: 39 (Dec 22, 2025)

Under 38.5 hit in 2 of 10 games against MEM on record

L20 · Without Jalen Williams · Under 38.5

Average: 35.2; −3.3 vs line
Median: 35; −3.5 vs line
Hit rate: 57%; 8 of 14
Price implies: 59%; at −141
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −155

Research, not a pick. At −118 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −155, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Jalen Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−1863 books	—	7/14
+1044 books	−1412 books	8/14
+1233 books	—	9/14
+2503 books	—	12/14

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 38.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 38.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 38.5	Under 38.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−112	−118Best
betPARX3 min ago	+104Best	−141
Bally Bet3 min ago	+104Best	—
BetRivers1 min ago	+104Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:26 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

38.5

Under: −114 → −141 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's full game log and splits