Sam Merrill

Cleveland Cavaliers · G · #5

CLE @ OKC · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under11.5

Under 11.5 Pts+Reb, typical price −1145 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Peyton Watson: Out (hamstring)
Under 11.5 without him: 1 of 1; with him: 4 of 6 (7 games as teammates). A small sample.
Minutes
Last 5: 24.6 min · 2025–26: 24.9 (69 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs OKC
Game lines
CLE +2.5 · total 228.5 (7 sportsbooks)
CLE's games this season closed at 234.6 on average (7 games)

80%8 of 10L10

Under 11.5 Pts+Reb hit in 8 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

at NY, 2026-05-21: 4, hit, 23 min
vs NY, 2026-05-23: 9, hit, 24 min
vs NY, 2026-05-25: 6, hit, 18 min
at PHI, 2026-10-22: 10, hit, 24 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-24: 9, hit, 21 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-26: 13, missed, 31 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-28: 9, hit, 20 min
at ATL, 2026-10-29: 18, missed, 27 min
at MIL, 2026-10-31: 10, hit, 19 min
vs OKC, 2026-11-02: 11, hit, 26 min

Under hitMissedThe 11.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2.8–19.3 pts+reb.

Splits

Under 11.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 11.5 · L10

Donovan MitchellG
James HardenG
Evan MobleyC
Peyton WatsonGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Cavaliers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OKC

Pts+Reb: 11 in 26 min, Nov 2 (home)

Under 11.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against OKC on record

L10 · Under 11.5

Average: 9.9; −1.6 vs line
Median: 9.5; −2 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −127

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −127, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−15801 book	—	1/10
−1804 books	—	5/10
−1065 books	−1143 books	8/10
+2004 books	—	9/10
+5741 book	—	10/10
+15001 book	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 11.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 11.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 11.5	Under 11.5
DraftKings3 min ago	−116	−113Best
FanDuel2 min ago	−114	−114
betPARX3 min ago	−106Best	−129
Bally Bet3 min ago	−106Best	—
BetRivers3 min ago	−106Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:00 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

11.5

10.5 → 11.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Sam Merrill's full game log and splits