Sam Merrill

Cleveland Cavaliers · G · #5

CLE @ OKC · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under9.5

Under 9.5 Points, typical price −1307 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 9.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Peyton Watson: Out (hamstring)
Under 9.5 without him: 1 of 1; with him: 5 of 6 (7 games as teammates). A small sample.
Defense vs guards
OKC allow 50.9 points a game to guards: 24th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 24.6 min · 2025–26: 24.9 (69 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs OKC

90%9 of 10L10

Under 9.5 Points hit in 9 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

at NY, 2026-05-21: 4, hit, 23 min
vs NY, 2026-05-23: 6, hit, 24 min
vs NY, 2026-05-25: 5, hit, 18 min
at PHI, 2026-10-22: 5, hit, 24 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-24: 7, hit, 21 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-26: 9, hit, 31 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-28: 8, hit, 20 min
at ATL, 2026-10-29: 16, missed, 27 min
at MIL, 2026-10-31: 6, hit, 19 min
vs OKC, 2026-11-02: 8, hit, 26 min

Under hitMissedThe 9.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1.3–16.7 points.

Splits

Under 9.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 9.5 · L10

Donovan MitchellG
James HardenG
Evan MobleyC
Peyton WatsonGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Cavaliers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OKC

Points: 8 in 26 min, Nov 2 (home)

Under 9.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against OKC on record

L10 · Under 9.5

Average: 7.4; −2.1 vs line
Median: 6.5; −3 vs line
Hit rate: 90%; 9 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −130
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −120 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2951 book	+2151 book	5/10
−1755 books	+1501 book	6/10
−1224 books	−1103 books	8/10
+1027 books	−1304 books	9/10
+1351 book	−1801 book	9/10
+1855 books	−2451 book	9/10
+3583 books	—	9/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 9.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 9.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 9.5	Under 9.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−110	−120Best
Bovada15 min ago	+100	−130
DraftKings15 min ago	+102	−130
Pinnacle15 min ago	+102	−136
Bally Bet15 min ago	+112Best	—
betPARX3 min ago	+112Best	—
BetRivers3 min ago	+112Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:30 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

9.5

8.5 → 9.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Sam Merrill's full game log and splits