Sam Merrill

Cleveland Cavaliers · G · #5

CLE @ OKC · Tomorrow 8:00 PM

Over Under8.5

Over 8.5 Points, typical price −1223 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 8.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Peyton Watson: Out (hamstring)
Over 8.5 without him: 0 of 1; with him: 2 of 6 (7 games as teammates). A small sample.
Defense vs guards
OKC allow 50.9 points a game to guards: 24th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 24.6 min · 2025–26: 24.9 (69 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs OKC

20%2 of 10L10

Over 8.5 Points cleared in 2 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 on the road).

at NY, 2026-05-21: 4, missed, 23 min
vs NY, 2026-05-23: 6, missed, 24 min
vs NY, 2026-05-25: 5, missed, 18 min
at PHI, 2026-10-22: 5, missed, 24 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-24: 7, missed, 21 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-26: 9, cleared, 31 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-28: 8, missed, 20 min
at ATL, 2026-10-29: 16, cleared, 27 min
at MIL, 2026-10-31: 6, missed, 19 min
vs OKC, 2026-11-02: 8, missed, 26 min

ClearedMissedThe 8.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Splits

Over 8.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 8.5 · L10

Donovan MitchellG
James HardenG
Evan MobleyC
Peyton WatsonGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Cavaliers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OKC

Points: 8 in 26 min, Nov 2 (home)

Over 8.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against OKC on record

L10 · Over 8.5

Average: 7.4; −1.1 vs line
Median: 6.5; −2 vs line
Hit rate: 20%; 2 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −122
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Minutes: 23.3; 10 games · 24.9 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 8.5 51%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6501 book	—	9/10
−1753 books	—	4/10
−1223 books	−1092 books	2/10
+1124 books	−1381 book	1/10
+1853 books	—	1/10
+3501 book	—	1/10
+10601 book	—	0/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 8.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 8.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 8.5	Under 8.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	−122Best	—
betPARX6 min ago	−122Best	−108Best
BetRivers7 min ago	−124	−110
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:37 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

8.5

Over −108 → −122 since first seen

Sam Merrill's full game log and splits