Sam Merrill

Cleveland Cavaliers · G · #5

CLE @ OKC · Tomorrow 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1655 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Peyton Watson: Out (hamstring)
Under 2.5 without him: 1 of 1; with him: 5 of 6 (7 games as teammates). A small sample.
Defense vs guards
OKC allow 8.0 threes made a game to guards: 10th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 24.6 min · 2025–26: 24.9 (69 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs OKC

90%9 of 10L10

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 9 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

at NY, 2026-05-21: 0, hit, 23 min
vs NY, 2026-05-23: 2, hit, 24 min
vs NY, 2026-05-25: 1, hit, 18 min
at PHI, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 24 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 21 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-26: 1, hit, 31 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-28: 2, hit, 20 min
at ATL, 2026-10-29: 4, missed, 27 min
at MIL, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 19 min
vs OKC, 2026-11-02: 2, hit, 26 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 3-pointers made.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Donovan MitchellG
James HardenG
Evan MobleyC
Peyton WatsonGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Cavaliers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OKC

3-Pointers Made: 2 in 26 min, Nov 2 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against OKC on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 1.5; −1 vs line
Median: 1; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 90%; 9 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −165
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −189

Research, not a pick. At −146 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −189, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−11155 books	—	1/10
−2105 books	—	6/10
+1325 books	−1654 books	9/10
+3005 books	—	9/10
+5862 books	—	10/10
+11902 books	—	10/10
+20952 books	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings12 min ago	+111	−146Best
FanDuel2 min ago	+114	−152
betPARX2 min ago	+133Best	−180
BetRivers2 min ago	+132	−182
Bally Bet2 min ago	+133Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:23 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

−172 → −165 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Sam Merrill's full game log and splits