Sam Merrill
CLE @ OKC · Today 8:00 PM
Game log against Under 2.5
90%9 of 10L10
Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 9 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 3-pointers made.
What's different today
Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Peyton Watson: Out (hamstring)
Under 2.5 without him: 1 of 1; with him: 5 of 6 (7 games as teammates). A small sample.
Defense vs guards
OKC allow 8.0 threes made a game to guards: 10th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 24.6 min · 2025–26: 24.9 (69 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs OKC
Splits
Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 2.5 · L10Donovan MitchellG
James HardenG
Evan MobleyC
Peyton WatsonGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Cavaliers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs OKC
3-Pointers Made: 2 in 26 min, Nov 2 (home)
Under 2.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against OKC on record
L10 · Under 2.5
- Average
- 1.5
- −1 vs line
- Median
- 1
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 90%
- 9 of 10
- Price implies
- 57%
- at −133
- Books’ fair
- 53%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 63%
- estimate · fair −171
Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −171, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −18003 books | — | 1/10 | |
| −2866 books | — | 6/10 | |
| +1027 books | −1336 books | 9/10 | |
| +2306 books | — | 9/10 | |
| +4806 books | — | 10/10 | |
| +11003 books | — | 10/10 | |
| +21003 books | — | 10/10 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada1 min ago | +100 | −130Best |
| FanDuel1 min ago | +102Best | −130Best |
| DraftKings2 min ago | −101 | −131 |
| Pinnacle2 min ago | +100 | −133 |
| betPARX1 min ago | +102Best | −137 |
| BetRivers2 min ago | +102Best | −137 |
| Bally Bet2 min ago | +102Best | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 5:29 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
2.5−190 → −133 since first seen