Saddiq Bey

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #41

UTAH @ NO · Live

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −1901 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

50%2 of 4L20 · Without Murphy

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 2 of 4 games without Trey Murphy III (his last 20 games).

vs TOR, 2026-03-11: 0, missed, 28 min (not counted)
at HOU, 2026-03-13: 2, cleared, 30 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-03-16: 1, cleared, 35 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-03-18: 2, cleared, 35 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-03-19: 1, cleared, 36 min (not counted)
vs CLE, 2026-03-21: 0, missed, 36 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-03-24: 0, missed, 28 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-03-26: 3, cleared, 31 min
at TOR, 2026-03-27: 0, missed, 30 min
vs HOU, 2026-03-29: 0, missed, 31 min
at POR, 2026-04-02: 1, cleared, 35 min (not counted)
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 1, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
vs ORL, 2026-04-05: 2, cleared, 39 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 0, missed, 24 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 22 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 25 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 2, cleared, 26 min (not counted)
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 0, missed, 24 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 4, cleared, 26 min (not counted)
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 36 min (not counted)

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different yesterday

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

6 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Trey Murphy III playing; Murphy is out yesterday. Without him: Over 0.5 in 6 of 11.

YesterdayTeammate out
Trey Murphy III: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 6 of 11; with him: 40 of 68 (79 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 8 of 18; with him: 38 of 61 (79 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
UTAH allow 3.3 steals a game to forwards: 14th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 27.4 min · 2025–26: 31.2 (72 games)

Splits

Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Trey Murphy IIIFOut
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Steals: 0 in 22 min, Oct 23 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Murphy · Over 0.5

Average: 1.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 2 of 4
Price implies: 66%; at −190
Books’ fair: —; needs both sides
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −169

Research, not a pick. At −190 the price is worse than our fair −169, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Murphy

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	−1901 book	pick'em only	2/4
	+2351 book	—	2/4

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet10 hr ago	−190Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −157 → −190 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Saddiq Bey's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:13 PM ET.