Paul George

Boston Celtics · F · #13

MIL @ BOS · Live

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Rebounds, typical price −1482 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Rebounds hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

at NY, 2026-05-04: 3, hit, 26 min
at NY, 2026-05-06: 6, missed, 43 min
vs NY, 2026-05-08: 5, hit, 38 min
vs NY, 2026-05-10: 1, hit, 27 min
at DET, 2026-10-20: 5, hit, 31 min
vs NY, 2026-10-23: 7, missed, 34 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-26: 5, hit, 25 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-27: 7, missed, 36 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-30: 6, missed, 27 min
at ORL, 2026-11-01: 6, missed, 33 min

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 1.4–8.1 rebounds.

What's different yesterday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Jayson Tatum: Out (rest)
Under 5.5 without him: no games; with him: 2 of 6 (6 games as teammates)
New team
6 games with BOS; before that, PHI
Under 5.5 with BOS: 2 of 6; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10
Defense vs forwards
MIL allow 21.9 rebounds a game to forwards: 5th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 31 min · 2025–26: 31.8 (48 games)

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIL in his last 10; Under 5.5 hit in 6 of 6 against MIL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 5.5 · L10

Jayson TatumFOut
Payton PritchardG
Derrick WhiteG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Celtics count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIL

George didn't play the Apr 3 meeting; rebounds the last time George faced them: 5 (Apr 12)

Under 5.5 hit in 6 of 6 games against MIL on record

L10 · Under 5.5

Average: 5.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 5.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −148
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −148 the price is worse than our fair −133, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−12502 books	—	1/10
−4202 books	—	2/10
−1803 books	+1341 book	2/10
+1002 books	−1481 book	5/10
+1752 books	—	8/10
+3002 books	—	10/10
+4802 books	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
DraftKings23 hr ago	+112Best	−148Best
Bally Bet23 hr ago	+100	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

4.5 → 5.5 since first seen

Paul George's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:43 PM ET.