Paul George

Boston Celtics · F · #13

MIL @ BOS · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Rebounds, typical price −1453 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
6 games with BOS; before that, PHI
Over 4.5 with BOS: 6 of 6; his last 10 games before: 3 of 10
Defense vs forwards
MIL allow 21.9 rebounds a game to forwards: 5th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 31 min · 2025–26: 31.8 (48 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at HOU
George sat the last game (Nov 2)

80%8 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Rebounds cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).

at NY, 2026-05-04: 3, missed, 26 min
at NY, 2026-05-06: 6, cleared, 43 min
vs NY, 2026-05-08: 5, cleared, 38 min
vs NY, 2026-05-10: 1, missed, 27 min
at DET, 2026-10-20: 5, cleared, 31 min
vs NY, 2026-10-23: 7, cleared, 34 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-26: 5, cleared, 25 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-27: 7, cleared, 36 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-30: 6, cleared, 27 min
at ORL, 2026-11-01: 6, cleared, 33 min

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1.4–8.1 rebounds.

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIL in his last 10; Over 4.5 cleared in 6 of 6 against MIL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 4.5 · L10

Jayson TatumFDay-To-Day
Payton PritchardGDay-To-Day
Derrick WhiteG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Celtics count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIL

George didn't play the Apr 3 meeting; rebounds the last time George faced them: 5 (Apr 12)

Over 4.5 hit in 6 of 6 games against MIL on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 5.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 5.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 59%; at −145
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −135

Research, not a pick. At −142 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −135, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−11002 books	—	9/10
−3502 books	—	8/10
−1453 books	+1103 books	8/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
+1323 books	−1701 book	5/10
+2252 books	—	2/10
+4502 books	—	0/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
DraftKings2 min ago	−142Best	+108
Bovada2 min ago	−145	+110
FanDuel2 min ago	−158	+118Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:49 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

−158 → −145 since first seen

Paul George's full game log and splits