Paul George

Boston Celtics · F · #13

MIL @ BOS · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Assists, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
6 games with BOS; before that, PHI
Under 4.5 with BOS: 3 of 6; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10
Defense vs forwards
MIL allow 6.9 assists a game to forwards: 22nd most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 31 min · 2025–26: 31.8 (48 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at HOU
George sat the last game (Nov 2)

70%7 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Assists hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

at NY, 2026-05-04: 3, hit, 26 min
at NY, 2026-05-06: 4, hit, 43 min
vs NY, 2026-05-08: 3, hit, 38 min
vs NY, 2026-05-10: 2, hit, 27 min
at DET, 2026-10-20: 3, hit, 31 min
vs NY, 2026-10-23: 2, hit, 34 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-26: 2, hit, 25 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-27: 7, missed, 36 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-30: 8, missed, 27 min
at ORL, 2026-11-01: 8, missed, 33 min

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–6 assists.

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIL in his last 10; Under 4.5 hit in 3 of 6 against MIL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 4.5 · L10

Jayson TatumFDay-To-Day
Payton PritchardGDay-To-Day
Derrick WhiteG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Celtics count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIL

George didn't play the Apr 3 meeting; assists the last time George faced them: 2 (Apr 12)

Under 4.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against MIL on record

L10 · Under 4.5

Average: 4.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 3; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −102 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−40001 book	—	0/10
−10002 books	—	3/10
−2653 books	+2051 book	6/10
−1283 books	−1142 books	7/10
+1603 books	−2151 book	7/10
+2842 books	—	7/10
+5152 books	—	8/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
DraftKings8 min ago	−128	−102Best
FanDuel2 min ago	−114Best	−114
Bovada7 min ago	−130	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:39 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

No move since first seen

Paul George's full game log and splits