Paul George

Boston Celtics · F · #13

MIL @ BOS · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under3.5

Under 3.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1647 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 3.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 7 of his last 10 games (6 of 6 at home).

at NY, 2026-05-04: 4, missed, 26 min
at NY, 2026-05-06: 5, missed, 43 min
vs NY, 2026-05-08: 3, hit, 38 min
vs NY, 2026-05-10: 1, hit, 27 min
at DET, 2026-10-20: 7, missed, 31 min
vs NY, 2026-10-23: 3, hit, 34 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-26: 3, hit, 25 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-27: 1, hit, 36 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-30: 2, hit, 27 min
at ORL, 2026-11-01: 3, hit, 33 min

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 3-pointers made.

What's different today

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 5 of his last 5 came with Jayson Tatum playing; Tatum is out today. Without him: Under 3.5 in no games.

TodayTeammate out
Jayson Tatum: Out (rest)
Under 3.5 without him: no games; with him: 5 of 6 (6 games as teammates)
New team
6 games with BOS; before that, PHI
Under 3.5 with BOS: 5 of 6; his last 10 games before: 5 of 10
Defense vs forwards
MIL allow 4.4 threes made a game to forwards: 18th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 31 min · 2025–26: 31.8 (48 games)

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIL in his last 10; Under 3.5 hit in 3 of 6 against MIL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 3.5 · L10

Jayson TatumFOut
Payton PritchardGDay-To-Day
Derrick WhiteG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Celtics count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIL

George didn't play the Apr 3 meeting; 3-pointers made the last time George faced them: 1 (Apr 12)

Under 3.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against MIL on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average: 3.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 3; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −164
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −176

Research, not a pick. At −144 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −176, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−70001 book	—	0/10
−6606 books	—	2/10
−2206 books	+1701 book	3/10
+1237 books	−1646 books	7/10
+2656 books	—	8/10
+5106 books	—	9/10
+9503 books	—	9/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
DraftKings2 min ago	+109	−144Best
Bovada2 min ago	+110	−145
FanDuel1 min ago	+116	−148
Pinnacle2 min ago	+123	−164
betPARX1 min ago	+128Best	−175
BetRivers1 min ago	+128Best	−175
Bally Bet2 min ago	+128Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

2.5 → 3.5 since first seen

Paul George's full game log and splits