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Pascal Siakam

Indiana Pacers · F · #43

IND @ MEM · Today 8:00 PM
OverUnder4.5
Under 4.5 Assists, typical price −1741 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TodayTeammate out

    Tyrese Haliburton: Out (hamstring)

    Under 4.5 without him: 42 of 65; with him: 15 of 22 (87 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Obi Toppin: Out (back)

    Under 4.5 without him: 34 of 51; with him: 23 of 36 (87 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Ivica Zubac: Out (ankle)

    Under 4.5 without him: 6 of 11; with him: 2 of 3 (14 games as teammates)

  • Defense vs forwards

    MEM allow 9.1 assists a game to forwards: 7th most of 30

    7 games

Game log against Under 4.5

69%11 of 16L20 · Without Haliburton

Under 4.5 Assists hit in 11 of 16 games without Tyrese Haliburton (his last 20 games).

  1. at TOR, 2026-02-08: 2, hit, 24 min
  2. at NY, 2026-02-10: 4, hit, 37 min
  3. vs DAL, 2026-02-22: 3, hit, 29 min
  4. at LAC, 2026-03-04: 1, hit, 30 min
  5. at LAL, 2026-03-06: 3, hit, 29 min
  6. at POR, 2026-03-08: 5, missed, 32 min
  7. at SA, 2026-03-21: 5, missed, 29 min
  8. at ORL, 2026-03-23: 1, hit, 34 min
  9. vs LAL, 2026-03-25: 1, hit, 30 min
  10. vs LAC, 2026-03-27: 3, hit, 33 min
  11. vs MIA, 2026-03-29: 6, missed, 31 min
  12. at CHI, 2026-04-01: 5, missed, 22 min
  13. at CHA, 2026-04-03: 2, hit, 34 min
  14. at NO, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 35 min (not counted)
  15. vs DAL, 2026-10-23: 3, hit, 29 min (not counted)
  16. at BKN, 2026-10-25: 6, missed, 26 min (not counted)
  17. at MIL, 2026-10-26: 6, missed, 37 min (not counted)
  18. vs PHI, 2026-10-28: 3, hit, 34 min
  19. at MIA, 2026-10-30: 4, hit, 29 min
  20. vs BKN, 2026-11-01: 5, missed, 36 min
Under hitMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–6 assists.

Splits

Under 4.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MEM in his last 20; Under 4.5 hit in 1 of 3 against MEM on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 4.5 · L20

  • Tyrese HaliburtonGOut

  • Andrew NembhardG

  • Aaron NesmithG

  • Obi ToppinFOut

  • Ivica ZubacCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pacers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MEM

Siakam didn't play the Mar 1 meeting; assists the last time Siakam faced them: 6 (Oct 25, 2025)

Under 4.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against MEM on record

L20 · Without Haliburton · Under 4.5

Average
3.3
−1.2 vs line
Median
3
−1.5 vs line
Hit rate
69%
11 of 16
Price implies
64%
at −174
Books’ fair
59%
margin removed
Our chance
63%
estimate · fair −168

Research, not a pick. At −174 the price is worse than our fair −168, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Haliburton
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL20
−16001 book—3/16
−1661 bookpick'em only9/16
+1301 book−1741 book11/16
+2601 book—15/16
+9001 book—16/16
+20001 book—16/16
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 4.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 4.5Under 4.5
FanDuel2 min ago+130Best−174Best
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 1:57 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

−166 → −174 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%
Pascal Siakam's full game log and splits