LeBron James

Philadelphia 76ers · F · #23

PHI @ CLE · Tomorrow 7:30 PM

Over Under16.5

Over 16.5 Points, typical price −1251 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 16.5 Points cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 on the road).

at OKC, 2026-05-07: 23, cleared, 38 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-09: 19, cleared, 37 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-11: 24, cleared, 40 min
at NY, 2026-10-20: 14, missed, 34 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-22: 17, cleared, 33 min
vs DET, 2026-10-25: 18, cleared, 33 min
at IND, 2026-10-28: 13, missed, 33 min
vs NY, 2026-10-30: 20, cleared, 34 min
vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 15, missed, 31 min
at DET, 2026-11-04: 13, missed, 33 min

ClearedMissedThe 16.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tomorrow's game: a typical game lands 11.3–26.6 points.

What's different tomorrow

Over 16.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TomorrowDefense vs forwards
CLE allow 32.6 points a game to forwards: 29th most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Dominick Barlow: Out (back)
Over 16.5 without him: 3 of 7; with him: no games (7 games as teammates)
New team
7 games with PHI; before that, LAL
Over 16.5 with PHI: 3 of 7; his last 10 games before: 9 of 10
Minutes
Last 5: 32.8 min · 2025–26: 33.9 (70 games)

Splits

Over 16.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 16.5 · L10

Tyrese MaxeyG
Joel EmbiidC
Jaylen BrownG
Dominick BarlowFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tomorrow. Only games they were teammates on the 76ers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Points: 17 in 33 min, Oct 22 (home)

Over 16.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against CLE on record

L10 · Over 16.5

Average: 17.6; +1.1 vs line
Median: 17.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −145

Research, not a pick. At −125 the price beats our fair −145, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−14001 book	—	10/10
−2101 book	—	7/10
−1251 book	−1061 book	6/10
+1761 book	—	3/10
+5401 book	—	0/10
+14001 book	—	0/10
+40001 book	—	0/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 3 pick'em apps at 16.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 16.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 16.5	Under 16.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−125Best	−106Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

16.5

Over: −122 → −125 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

LeBron James's full game log and splits