LaMelo Ball
MIN @ HOU · Today 8:30 PM
What's different today
Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 4 of 4; with him: 1 of 4 (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (achilles)
Over 3.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
New team
8 games with MIN; before that, CHA
Over 3.5 with MIN: 5 of 8; his last 10 games before: 7 of 10
Defense vs guards
HOU allow 14.8 rebounds a game to guards: 19th most of 30
8 games
Game log against Over 3.5
100%4 of 4L20 · Without Edwards
Over 3.5 Rebounds cleared in 4 of 4 games without Anthony Edwards (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0.7–7.4 rebounds.
Splits
Over 3.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderNo game against HOU in his last 20; Over 3.5 cleared in 4 of 5 against HOU on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 3.5 · L20Anthony EdwardsGOut
Jaden McDanielsF
Ayo DosunmuG
Donte DiVincenzoGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Timberwolves count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs HOU
Ball didn't play the Apr 10 meeting; rebounds the last time Ball faced them: 7 (Feb 19)
Over 3.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against HOU on record
L20 · Without Edwards · Over 3.5
- Average
- 5.5
- +2 vs line
- Median
- 5
- +1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 100%
- 4 of 4
- Price implies
- 61%
- at −157
- Books’ fair
- 57%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −138
Research, not a pick. At −154 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −138, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L20 · Without Edwards| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −4202 books | — | 4/4 | |
| −1576 books | +1183 books | 4/4 | |
| +1285 books | −1753 books | 2/4 | |
| +2355 books | — | 2/4 | |
| +4002 books | — | 1/4 | |
| +8802 books | — | 1/4 | |
| +15201 book | — | 0/4 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel3 min ago | −154Best | +116 |
| DraftKings4 min ago | −155 | +118 |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −157 | — |
| betPARX6 min ago | −157 | — |
| BetRivers6 min ago | −157 | — |
| Bovada4 min ago | −160 | +120Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 2:50 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
3.54.5 → 3.5 since first seen