LaMelo Ball
MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM
Game log against Under 11.5
60%3 of 5L20 · Without Edwards
Under 11.5 Reb+Ast hit in 3 of 5 games without Anthony Edwards (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 6.6–14.3 reb+ast.
What's different today
Under 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pick4 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Anthony Edwards playing; Edwards is out today. Without him: Under 11.5 in 3 of 5.
TodayTeammate out
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Under 11.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: 4 of 4 (9 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (achilles)
Under 11.5 without him: 7 of 9; with him: no games (9 games as teammates)
New team
9 games with MIN; before that, CHA
Under 11.5 with MIN: 7 of 9; his last 10 games before: 5 of 10
Minutes
Last 5: 28.2 min · 2026–27: 26.7 (9 games)
Splits
Under 11.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderNo game against NO in his last 20; Under 11.5 hit in 0 of 3 against NO on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 11.5 · L20Anthony EdwardsGOut
Jaden McDanielsF
Ayo DosunmuG
Donte DiVincenzoGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Timberwolves count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs NO
Ball didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; reb+ast the last time Ball faced them: 13 (Feb 2)
Under 11.5 hit in 0 of 3 games against NO on record
L20 · Without Edwards · Under 11.5
- Average
- 10.4
- −1.1 vs line
- Median
- 11
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 3 of 5
- Price implies
- 57%
- at −130
- Books’ fair
- 52%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 59%
- estimate · fair −146
Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −146, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L20 · Without Edwards| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −7001 book | — | 0/5 | |
| −2304 books | — | 2/5 | |
| +1005 books | −1303 books | 3/5 | |
| +3004 books | — | 5/5 | |
| +8501 book | — | 5/5 | |
| +16001 book | — | 5/5 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 11.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 11.5 | Under 11.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings12 min ago | −116 | −113Best |
| FanDuel3 min ago | −102 | −130 |
| betPARX3 min ago | +100Best | −136 |
| Bally Bet12 min ago | +100Best | — |
| BetRivers4 min ago | +100Best | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:24 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
11.5Under: −118 → −130 since first seen