LaMelo Ball

Minnesota Timberwolves · G · #1

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under21.5

Under 21.5 Points, typical price −1322 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%3 of 5L20 · Without Edwards

Under 21.5 Points hit in 3 of 5 games without Anthony Edwards (his last 20 games).

vs SAC, 2026-03-24: 20, hit, 23 min (not counted)
vs NY, 2026-03-26: 22, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-03-28: 20, hit, 37 min (not counted)
vs BOS, 2026-03-29: 19, hit, 26 min (not counted)
at BKN, 2026-03-31: 14, hit, 28 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-04-02: 15, hit, 25 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2026-04-03: 18, hit, 30 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-05: 35, missed, 31 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-07: 36, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-10: 27, missed, 33 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-04-12: 19, hit, 29 min (not counted)
at MIA, 2026-10-21: 21, hit, 28 min (not counted)
at ORL, 2026-10-23: 12, hit, 23 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-10-25: 15, hit, 17 min (not counted)
at CLE, 2026-10-26: 11, hit, 31 min (not counted)
vs GS, 2026-10-28: 8, hit, 28 min
vs LAC, 2026-10-30: 24, missed, 29 min
at SA, 2026-10-31: 10, hit, 20 min
vs MIL, 2026-11-02: 34, missed, 33 min
at HOU, 2026-11-04: 20, hit, 31 min

Under hitMissedThe 21.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 10.6–29.4 points.

What's different today

Under 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

5 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Anthony Edwards playing; Edwards is out today. Without him: Under 21.5 in 3 of 5.

TodayTeammate out
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Under 21.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: 4 of 4 (9 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (achilles)
Under 21.5 without him: 7 of 9; with him: no games (9 games as teammates)
New team
9 games with MIN; before that, CHA
Under 21.5 with MIN: 7 of 9; his last 10 games before: 6 of 10
Defense vs guards
NO allow 60.1 points a game to guards: 9th most of 30
8 games

Splits

Under 21.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against NO in his last 20; Under 21.5 hit in 0 of 3 against NO on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 21.5 · L20

Anthony EdwardsGOut
Jaden McDanielsF
Ayo DosunmuG
Donte DiVincenzoGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Timberwolves count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NO

Ball didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; points the last time Ball faced them: 24 (Feb 2)

Under 21.5 hit in 0 of 3 games against NO on record

L20 · Without Edwards · Under 21.5

Average: 19.2; −2.3 vs line
Median: 20; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 3 of 5
Price implies: 57%; at −132
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −121 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −130, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Edwards

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2301 book	—	2/5
−1562 books	—	2/5
pick'em only	pick'em only	3/5
−1062 books	−1322 books	3/5
+1602 books	—	4/5
+3852 books	—	4/5
+9002 books	—	5/5

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 21.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 21.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 21.5	Under 21.5
DraftKings10 min ago	−106	−121Best
FanDuel1 min ago	+100Best	−132
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:38 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

21.5

20.5 → 21.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

LaMelo Ball's full game log and splits