Keldon Johnson

San Antonio Spurs · F · #3

DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Rebounds, typical price −1562 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs forwards
DAL allow 18.4 rebounds a game to forwards: 17th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 24.4 min · 2025–26: 22.1 (106 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs UTAH
Game lines
SA −11.5 · total 226.5 (9 sportsbooks)
SA's games this season closed at 229.4 on average (7 games)

90%9 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Rebounds cleared in 9 of his last 10 games (6 of 6 at home).

at NY, 2026-06-08: 2, missed, 17 min
at NY, 2026-06-10: 4, cleared, 18 min
vs NY, 2026-06-13: 5, cleared, 16 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-20: 4, cleared, 20 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-23: 6, cleared, 19 min
at DAL, 2026-10-24: 6, cleared, 26 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-27: 4, cleared, 22 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-28: 6, cleared, 23 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-31: 6, cleared, 24 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-02: 7, cleared, 27 min

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1.5–8.1 rebounds.

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 3.5 · L10

Victor WembanyamaF
Stephon CastleG
De'Aaron FoxG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Spurs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Rebounds: 6 in 26 min, Oct 24 (away)

Over 3.5 hit in 10 of 10 games against DAL on record

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 5; +1.5 vs line
Median: 5.5; +2 vs line
Hit rate: 90%; 9 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −156
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −174

Research, not a pick. At −146 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −174, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3361 book	—	9/10
−1562 books	+1172 books	9/10
+1351 book	pick'em only	6/10
+2542 books	—	5/10
+4501 book	—	1/10
+8232 books	—	0/10
+13201 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
DraftKings15 min ago	−146Best	+111
FanDuel4 min ago	−166	+124Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:04 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over −178 → −156 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Keldon Johnson's full game log and splits