Karlo Matkovic

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #17

UTAH @ NO · Live

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −2251 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

33%1 of 3L20 · Without Murphy

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 1 of 3 games without Trey Murphy III (his last 20 games).

at LAC, 2026-03-01: 0, missed, 14 min (not counted)
at SAC, 2026-03-05: 0, missed, 25 min (not counted)
at PHX, 2026-03-06: 1, cleared, 13 min (not counted)
vs WSH, 2026-03-08: 1, cleared, 4 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-03-11: 1, cleared, 13 min (not counted)
at HOU, 2026-03-13: 0, missed, 22 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-03-16: 1, cleared, 20 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-03-18: 0, missed, 25 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-03-19: 1, cleared, 23 min (not counted)
vs CLE, 2026-03-21: 2, cleared, 12 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-03-24: 0, missed, 23 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-03-26: 1, cleared, 15 min
at TOR, 2026-03-27: 0, missed, 17 min
vs HOU, 2026-03-29: 0, missed, 17 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 2, cleared, 9 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 8 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 18 min (not counted)
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 28 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 18 min (not counted)
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 2, cleared, 29 min (not counted)

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

What's different yesterday

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 3 of his last 3 came with Trey Murphy III playing; Murphy is out yesterday. Without him: Over 0.5 in 5 of 10.

YesterdayTeammate out
Trey Murphy III: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 5 of 10; with him: 19 of 58 (68 games as teammates)
YesterdayMinutes
Last 5: 20.2 min · 2025–26: 14.7 (62 games) · up 37%
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 4 of 16; with him: 20 of 52 (68 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
UTAH allow 3.3 steals a game to forwards: 14th most of 30
7 games

Splits

Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Trey Murphy IIIFOut
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Steals: 2 in 9 min, Oct 23 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Murphy · Over 0.5

Average: 0.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 33%; 1 of 3
Price implies: 69%; at −225
Books’ fair: —; needs both sides
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −167

Research, not a pick. At −225 the price is worse than our fair −167, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Murphy

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2251 book	pick'em only	1/3
+1951 book	—	0/3
+5501 book	—	0/3

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet10 hr ago	−225Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

−190 → −225 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Karlo Matkovic's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:13 PM ET.