Julian Champagnie

San Antonio Spurs · F · #30

SA @ SAC · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1882 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 on the road).

at NY, 2026-06-10: 1, hit, 33 min
vs NY, 2026-06-13: 4, missed, 31 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-20: 2, hit, 30 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-23: 2, hit, 25 min
at DAL, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 28 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-27: 8, missed, 25 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-28: 2, hit, 31 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 27 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-02: 2, hit, 22 min
vs DAL, 2026-11-04: 0, hit, 21 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 3-pointers made.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs forwards
SAC allow 6.0 threes made a game to forwards: 2nd most of 30
8 games
TodayGame lines
SA −15.5 · total 229.5 (6 sportsbooks): a big spread
SA's games this season closed at 229 on average (8 games)
Minutes
Last 5: 25.2 min · 2026–27: 26.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs DAL

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Victor WembanyamaF
Stephon CastleG
Dylan HarperG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Spurs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SAC

3-Pointers Made: 8 in 25 min, Oct 27 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 2 of 8 games against SAC on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −188
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −141

Research, not a pick. At −184 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −141, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−14002 books	—	1/10
−2152 books	—	2/10
+1392 books	−1882 books	6/10
+3432 books	—	8/10
+7502 books	—	9/10
+16602 books	—	9/10
+28001 book	—	9/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings5 min ago	+139	−184Best
FanDuel1 min ago	+140Best	−188
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:18 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

3.5 → 2.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Julian Champagnie's full game log and splits