Joan Beringer
MIN @ HOU · LiveGame log against Over 0.5
60%6 of 10L20 · Without Edwards
Over 0.5 Blocks cleared in 6 of 10 games without Anthony Edwards (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 blocks.
What's different yesterday
Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pickYesterdayTeammate out
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 7 of 18; with him: 14 of 35 (53 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Out (hip)
Over 0.5 without him: 10 of 26; with him: 11 of 27 (53 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (achilles)
Over 0.5 without him: 6 of 12; with him: 15 of 41 (53 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
HOU allow 1.9 blocks a game to forwards: 16th most of 30
8 games
Splits
Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 0.5 · L20Anthony EdwardsGOut
LaMelo BallG
Jaden McDanielsF
Terrence Shannon Jr.GOut
Donte DiVincenzoGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Timberwolves count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs HOU
Blocks: 1 in 26 min, Apr 10 (away)
Over 0.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against HOU on record
L20 · Without Edwards · Over 0.5
- Average
- 1.4
- +0.9 vs line
- Median
- 1
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −113
- Books’ fair
- —
- no Under posted
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −128
Research, not a pick. At −113 the price beats our fair −128, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L20 · Without Edwards| Line | Over | L20 |
|---|---|---|
| −1131 book | 6/10 | |
| +3901 book | 3/10 |
Over only: sportsbooks post this as a yes bet (“1+ blocks”), with no Under to take.
Compare 1 sportsbook at 0.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 0.5 |
|---|---|
| Bally Bet5 hr ago | −113Best |
Prices as of 8:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
0.5Over: −129 → −113 since first seen
What moved our number
This page last updated 8:43 PM ET.


