Jaxson Hayes

Utah Jazz · C · #11

UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under10.5

Under 10.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1275 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 10.5 Pts+Ast hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 on the road).

at OKC, 2026-05-07: 8, hit, 15 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-09: 1, hit, 9 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-11: 19, missed, 27 min
at MEM, 2026-10-21: 8, hit, 26 min
vs NO, 2026-10-23: 19, missed, 26 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-25: 10, hit, 19 min
vs SA, 2026-10-28: 6, hit, 37 min
vs POR, 2026-10-31: 9, hit, 20 min
at SA, 2026-11-02: 9, hit, 22 min
at NO, 2026-11-04: 3, hit, 21 min

Under hitMissedThe 10.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1.3–17.9 pts+ast.

What's different today

Under 10.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayMinutes
Last 5: 23.8 min · 2025–26: 18.1 (76 games) · up 31%
Teammate out
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (knee)
Under 10.5 without him: 4 of 4; with him: 2 of 3 (7 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (foot)
Under 10.5 without him: 6 of 7; with him: no games (7 games as teammates)
New team
7 games with UTAH; before that, LAL
Under 10.5 with UTAH: 6 of 7; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10

Splits

Under 10.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 10; Under 10.5 hit in 7 of 9 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 10.5 · L10

Keyonte GeorgeG
Lauri MarkkanenF
Ace BaileyG
Jaren Jackson Jr.FOut
Jusuf NurkicCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Jazz count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Hayes didn't play the Jan 17 meeting; pts+ast the last time Hayes faced them: 25 (Apr 5)

Under 10.5 hit in 7 of 9 games against DAL on record

L10 · Under 10.5

Average: 9.2; −1.3 vs line
Median: 8.5; −2 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −127
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At −125 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −142, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−12401 book	—	2/10
−1484 books	—	7/10
−1075 books	−1273 books	8/10
+2704 books	—	8/10
+12001 book	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 10.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 10.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 10.5	Under 10.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−106	−125Best
betPARX3 min ago	−107	−127
DraftKings4 min ago	+102Best	−134
Bally Bet3 min ago	−107	—
BetRivers3 min ago	−107	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:16 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

10.5

Under: −122 → −127 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Jaxson Hayes's full game log and splits