James Harden

Cleveland Cavaliers · G · #1

CLE @ OKC · Tomorrow 8:00 PM

Over Under28.5

Under 28.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, typical price −1081 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 28.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs guards
OKC allow 82.9 points + rebounds + assists a game to guards: 21st most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 33.6 min · 2025–26: 35.4 (88 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs OKC
Game lines
CLE +2.5 · total 228.5 (8 sportsbooks)
CLE's games this season closed at 234.6 on average (7 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Under 28.5 Pts+Reb+Ast hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

at NY, 2026-05-21: 26, hit, 32 min
vs NY, 2026-05-23: 29, missed, 41 min
vs NY, 2026-05-25: 18, hit, 33 min
at PHI, 2026-10-22: 24, hit, 33 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-24: 27, hit, 33 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-26: 33, missed, 39 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-28: 24, hit, 34 min
at ATL, 2026-10-29: 33, missed, 36 min
at MIL, 2026-10-31: 26, hit, 26 min
vs OKC, 2026-11-02: 24, hit, 33 min

Under hitMissedThe 28.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 16.5–35.4 pts+reb+ast.

Splits

Under 28.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 28.5 · L10

Donovan MitchellG
Evan MobleyC
Peyton WatsonGDay-To-Day

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Cavaliers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OKC

Pts+Reb+Ast: 24 in 33 min, Nov 2 (home)

Under 28.5 hit in 1 of 6 games against OKC on record

L10 · Under 28.5

Average: 26.4; −2.1 vs line
Median: 26; −2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −108
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −128

Research, not a pick. At −108 the price beats our fair −128, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−1221 book	−1081 book	7/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 3 pick'em apps at 28.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 28.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 28.5	Under 28.5
FanDuel4 min ago	−122Best	−108Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:33 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

28.5

No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

James Harden's full game log and splits