Jakob Poeltl

Toronto Raptors · C · #19

TOR @ DEN · Live

Over Under5.5

Over 5.5 Points, typical price −1325 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 5.5 Points cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

vs CLE, 2026-04-23: 8, cleared, 18 min
vs CLE, 2026-04-26: 10, cleared, 21 min
at CLE, 2026-04-29: 14, cleared, 21 min
vs CLE, 2026-05-01: 2, missed, 22 min
at CLE, 2026-05-03: 9, cleared, 22 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-21: 3, missed, 22 min
at WSH, 2026-10-23: 6, cleared, 27 min
at MIN, 2026-10-25: 0, missed, 19 min
vs ORL, 2026-10-28: 2, missed, 10 min
vs ORL, 2026-10-30: 12, cleared, 23 min

ClearedMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0.1–15.5 points.

What's different yesterday

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs centers
DEN allow 16.5 points a game to centers: 8th most of 30
6 games
Minutes
Last 5: 20.2 min · 2025–26: 24.2 (53 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at LAC
3rd straight road game · At altitude: Denver, 5,280 ft · Poeltl has missed the last 2 games
Game lines
TOR +5 · total 231.5 (1 sportsbook)
TOR's games this season closed at 228.4 on average (7 games)

Splits

Over 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DEN in his last 10; Over 5.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against DEN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 5.5 · L10

RJ BarrettF
Scottie BarnesF
Immanuel QuickleyG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Raptors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DEN

Points: 23 in 35 min, Mar 20 (away)

Over 5.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against DEN on record

L10 · Over 5.5

Average: 6.6; +1.1 vs line
Median: 7; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −132
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At −116 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −134, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3351 book	—	6/10
−1851 book	+1401 book	6/10
−1325 books	−1102 books	6/10
+1152 books	−1602 books	5/10
+1703 books	−2301 book	5/10
+3103 books	—	3/10
+5752 books	—	2/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
DraftKings12 hr ago	−116Best	−110Best
Bovada12 hr ago	−120	−110Best
Bally Bet12 hr ago	−132	—
betPARX12 hr ago	−132	—
BetRivers12 hr ago	−134	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

6.5 → 5.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Jakob Poeltl's full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:13 PM ET.