Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Milwaukee Bucks · F · #24

MIL @ BOS · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under17.5

Over 17.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1212 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 17.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
7 games with MIL; before that, MIA
Over 17.5 with MIL: 5 of 7; his last 10 games before: 9 of 10
Minutes
Last 5: 26 min · 2025–26: 28.3 (75 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at MIN
Game lines
MIL +11.5 · total 224.5 (8 sportsbooks)
MIL's games this season closed at 235.6 on average (7 games)

80%8 of 10L10

Over 17.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 on the road).

at TOR, 2026-04-09: 19, cleared, 24 min
at WSH, 2026-04-10: 31, cleared, 36 min
vs ATL, 2026-04-12: 31, cleared, 26 min
at WSH, 2026-10-21: 24, cleared, 31 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-23: 24, cleared, 35 min
at PHI, 2026-10-24: 25, cleared, 27 min
vs IND, 2026-10-26: 8, missed, 25 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-28: 21, cleared, 27 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-31: 13, missed, 23 min
at MIN, 2026-11-02: 21, cleared, 28 min

ClearedMissedThe 17.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 11.1–27.9 pts+ast.

Splits

Over 17.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BOS in his last 10; Over 17.5 cleared in 5 of 11 against BOS on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 17.5 · L10

Tyler HerroG
Kevin Porter Jr.G
Ryan RollinsG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Bucks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BOS

Jr. didn't play the Apr 3 meeting; pts+ast the last time Jr. faced them: 19 (Apr 1)

Over 17.5 hit in 5 of 11 games against BOS on record

L10 · Over 17.5

Average: 21.7; +4.2 vs line
Median: 22.5; +5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −121
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −140

Research, not a pick. At −102 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −140, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−11801 book	—	9/10
−2421 book	—	8/10
−1212 books	−1302 books	8/10
+1291 book	—	7/10
+3651 book	—	3/10
+9601 book	—	2/10
+21001 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 17.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 17.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 17.5	Under 17.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−102Best	−130
DraftKings11 min ago	−121	−109Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:25 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

17.5

−102 → −121 since first seen

Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s full game log and splits